http://batonrougehousingreports.com/ – 2011 East Baton Rouge Average Home Sales Price In Correction Mode, More Home Sales In 2011 Possibly Because Of Lower Prices.
The well anticipated correction in local home prices, based on local incomes, the insane escalation of home prices after Hurricane Katrina, and the same housing euphoria that gripped our Nation from 2004 to 2007, has finally arrived. Despite the appearance of only a -2.13% decline, most of the 25 subdivisions examined belwo show far worse percentage declines indicating that for Baton Rouge Real Estate, 2011 was the anticipated “Year of Correction”!
For 2011, the East Baton Rouge Parish Average Home Sales Price declined from $206,028 in 2010 to $201,644 in 2011, a decline of -$4,384 or -2.13%. HOWEVER, The Average Sales Price of $201,644 could have also been artifically propped up by the 143 high dollar home sales above $500K, 21 of those sales $1,000,000 and above.
Trulia Median Sales Price Reflects Lower $184,500. While the GBRMLS Average Sales Price reflects $201,644, the much more accurate Median Sales Price through October 2011 reflects $184,500. Average sales prices takes into consideration the extremes in home sales prices from $5,000 up to $2,000,000 whereas Median Sales Prices tend to focus more on the direct focus of what prices home sales are centered.
Case-Shiller Reflects Correction Through Q3 2011. Below is the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart through Q3 2011 where they said, “The national index posted an annual decline of 3.9%, an improvement over the 5.8% decline posted in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are back to their first quarter of 2003 levels.”
An individual look at a sample of 25 Subdivisions shows a far deeper correction, and “carnage” than the “broad” number above. Of the 25 Subdivisions below in 2011, 80% showed correction. Only the 5 in showed a stable or appreciating market.
Solid Number of Home Sales To Call Trend. Generally, the number of home sales in each subdivision are numerous enough to declare a solid pattern trend.
Highlights and Surprises Of Some Subdivisions In Correction. Based on Average Sales Price Correction Percentage, Azalea Lakes is down -5%, Broadmoor -12%, Monticello -13%, Old Jefferson -15%, Park Forest -10%, Santa Maria -4%, Shenandoah Estates -6%, Sherwood Forest -16% and Wedgewood -16%. The surprises in this 2011 correction are: Goodwood Estates -15%, Kenilworth -9%, Fairhill @ BBH -4%, Riverbend -16%, Jefferson Terrace -20% and Woodridge down -1%.
If You’re A Home Buyer In East Baton Rouge in 2012, Beware Of Over Priced Listings! YES, there are some overpriced listings of sellers in denial and sellers that can’t afford to sell at a loss. If you’re a buyer in 2012, do your homework, ask me about the price support in the subdivision as compared to that listing price you’re buying into and don’t overpay as I expect this correction to continue well into 2012!
Strategic Default Situation? The sharp decline in Nicholson Lakes Subdivision has me concerned about a Strategic Default type situation. I wrote about Nicholson Lakes here: Baton Rouge Real Estate News: Nicholson Lakes Subdivision Major 10 Percent Correction! Remember that only 4 to 5 years ago these homes selling in the high $180′ to the $200’s. With prices falling so sharply in there in 2011, not as a result of foreclosures, and generally these are occupied by LSU students or young families moving upward as their incomes and family size grows, what will become of this situation. This is just one example in 2011 that Baton Rouge Real Estate is not immune from this national downturn in housing.
REMEMBER: The “Mission” of Baton Rouge Housing Reports is this: “Local Professionals Providing Trends, Analysis & Tips Helping Locals Make Informed Housing Decisions!“. The largest purchases Homeowners make during their lifetimes is a home and that’s such a crucial investment that they don’t need to get it wrong. My goal is to help provide potential local home buyers with the information needed to make informed buying decisions and prevent them from overpaying for local housing based on sellers in denial. This IS NOT a market where you want to be paying TOP DOLLAR for local housing.
NOTE: This report is subject to be updated as final closed sales for 2011 won’t be reported via GBRMLS until perhaps 01/12/2012.
NOTE: Based on information from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®MLS for the period of 01/01/2005 to 12/27/2011. This information was extracted on 12/27/2011. Statistics are based on total residential MLS sales reported to the GBRMLS as of 12/26/2011 6:01:00 PM