Despite Negative Local Media Coverage, Denham Springs & Walker Louisiana Markets Holding Steady

Denham Springs & Walker Market Comparison Study From Periods 6/1/2007-12/31/2007 to 1/1/2008-8/21/2008

8/21/2008 – Time To Do Some Number Crunching.
By Bill Cobb – Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group

Article with Graphs can also be viewed @ http://denhamspringsappraisers.com/

Last Thursday, The Advocate Newspaper published an article from the National Association of Realtors that said the Baton Rouge metropolitan area’s 2nd quarter median home price fell to $164,000 from $174,700 a year ago. However, the local Realtors’ leadership said on Friday its data showed the figure increased to $176,000. On Saturday, the NAR issued a correction concurring with GBRAR. Median price is the NAR’s barometer being used – Median means that half the homes sold were below that amount and half were above that amount. Yes, our market is slower, but our median home price has not dipped. A comparison between EBRP in July 2004 shows 140 sales versus only 94 sales for July 2008. So, yes, we are now in a slower market, but home sales are steady and inspire confidence in our local markets.

Saturday 8/16/08, The Advocate published what the Livingston Parish Board of Realtors see as a possible error, that Livingston Parish homes sales dropped a steep 39 percent when comparing totals from July 2007 and July 2008.

Sunday 8/17/08, WAFB.com published an article about 45 homes priced over 1 million dollars on the market in Greater Baton Rouge. The article stated that Country Club of Louisiana sales were down 50% from 1 year ago. They also interviewed an influential local developer who said Baton Rouge’s darkest days would arrive in 12 to 18 months from now and that would be the time to buy. Will Baton Rouge really see its darkest days in 12 to 18 months? ………..only time will tell.

Saturday 8/23/08, The Advocate published, ” Livingston permits drop 74 percent – The number of permits issued to build new homes dropped almost 75 percent in the past 18 months, according to data from Livingston Parish government”.

After these 4 recent articles, I began to wonder if the local media outlets were trying to promote hysteria in our local market just as the national media is stirring the national hysteria over the housing picture – with a large, irresponsible spoon in some cases. Do we now have a negative, speculative press in our local area? Is the real estate market in Western Livingston Parish really that bad – as compared to the national housing market? As a local home appraiser with these questions swirling in my mind, I picked up my HP12C and went to work doing some serious number crunching.

The following reveals my discoveries:

Search Parameters Defined. Time periods used are from 6/1/07 to 12/31/2007 and 01/01/2008 to 8/21/08 because The Advocate/NAR article used July 07 and because around 8/2007 is when the mortgage meltdown really began to happen. It’s important to capture the market picture after the mortgage meltdown began. To go back to 1/1/07 to 12/31/07 would use a period of time when the market was higher (post Katrina) and the mortgage meltdown wasn’t really a factor for 7 of those 12 months of that period of time. Some subdivisions were not added to this study, such as Plantation Estates, because they didn’t have enough sales between these 2 periods of time to draw a reliable conclusion. Also, any potential REO sales were excluded from this study.

Denham Springs 70706 – generally the area above Lockhart Road and north into Watson. A representative sample of Ten (10) residential subdivisions were studied comparing average sold price, median sold price and average sold price per sq. ft.. Remember – the NAR’s barometer for market direction is “Median” sales price. The results of this study showed Denham Springs 70706’s median sales price increased +$9,903, average sales price increased +$4,562 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by only -$0.54 cents.

Denham Springs 70726 – generally the area below Lockhart Road. A representative sample of Twelve (12) residential subdivisions was studied. The results of this study showed Denham Springs 70726’s median sales price increased +$3,194, average sales price increased +$576 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by -$2.60.

Walker 70785. Walker has experienced the most decline – albeit very modest. A representative sample of Seven (7) residential subdivisions was studied. The results of this study showed Walker’s median sales prices decreased only -$193, average sales price decreased -$1,181 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by -$1.23 cents. It would be reasonable to say that the Walker market is holding fairly steady and shows only a minor dip in home values.

In light of some of the bleak pictures read concerning those pockets of doom in the national housing market (California, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Arizona) , it’s appropriate to conclude that Greater Baton Rouge and in Livingston Parish are a blessed population . In some cases, we have increased home values and in others, we are remaining steady.

NOTE: Total Change is derived by dividing the total by the # of subdivisions.

70706

Subdiv.

Name

6/07-12/07 Average

Sales Price

6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price

6/07-12/07

Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

2008 Average

Sale Price

2008 Median

Sales Price

2008 Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

Average

Sales Price Change

Median Sales Price

Change

Average Sq.

Ft. Change

Acadiana Pl

162,652

160,000

113.14

163,471

160,000

111.38

+819

0

-$1.76

Beau Chen

135,160

133,400

104.47

130,850

131,500

109.41

-4,310

-$1,900

+4.94

Crestwood

136,603

136,500

110.53

137,717

136,250

110.25

+1,114

-250

-0.28

EagleRidge

139,160

138,000

109.76

141,975

141,400

111.02

+2,815

+3,400

+1.26

Easterly Lk

245,280

224,900

114.27

263,780

282000

110.03

+18,420

+57,100

-$4.24

Fountnbleau

179,033

176,950

105.83

177,640

179,400

102.20

-1,393

+2,450

-3.63

Glenwd Est

146,870

143,000

110.22

150,956

150,000

110.39

+4,086

+7,000

+0.17

Liv Ok Land

212,862

219,900

114.63

205,717

211,750

107.15

-7,145

-8,150

-7.48

Oak Hills

218,975

212,500

113.82

248,000

248000

113.80

+29,025

+35,500

-0.02

Otts Cove

145,362

144,311

104.46

147,550

148,200

106.57

+2,188

+3,889

+2.11

Total Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

+$4,562

+$9,903

-$0.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70726

Subdiv.

Name

6/07-12/07 Average

Sales Price

6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price

6/07-12/07

Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

2008 Average

Sale Price

2008 Median

Sales Price

2008 Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

Average

Sales Price Change

Median Sales Price

Change

Average Sq.

Ft. Change

Aud. Trace

196,633

200,000

113.09

195,700

195,750

112.87

-933

-4,250

-0.22

Carter Hills

158,712

163,000

111.32

157,750

157,750

109.62

-962

-5,250

-1.70

Forest Ridg

237,946

233,700

90.96

228,414

240,000

90.74

-9,532

+6,300

-0.22

Grays Crk

202,871

202,630

101.77

205,223

205,495

99.96

+2,362

+2,865

-1.81

Greystone

429,127

426,000

167.04

454,043

460,000

156.80

+24,916

+34,000

-10.24

Plant Park

107,100

111,900

92.61

104,738

104,000

91.06

-3100

-7900

-1.55

Shadow Sp

134,722

136,000

92.32

131,329

131,000

83.66

-3,393

-5,000

-8.66

Sth Haven

228,430

217,800

96.35

220,200

226,000

92.99

-8,230

+8,200

-3.36

Sth Point

147,362

146,500

92.64

149,704

154,900

92.56

+2,342

+8,400

-0.08

Westm Est

159,823

161,350

90.11

158,829

158000

90.23

-1,823

-3,350

+0.12

Woodl Crs

151,578

154,900

91.15

156,781

159,000

87.99

+5,203

+4,100

-3.16

Willow Pt

181,351

182,450

113.90

181,415

182,660

113.59

+64

+210

-0.31

Total Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

+$576

+$3,194

-$2.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70785

Subdiv.

Name

6/07-12/07 Average

Sales Price

6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price

6/07-12/07

Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

2008 Average

Sale Price

2008 Median

Sales Price

2008 Average

$ Per Sq. Ft.

Average

Sales Price Change

Median Sales Price

Change

Average Sq.

Ft. Change

Collins Pl

260,093

252,000

124.91

251,644

254,950

120.07

-8449

+2,950

-4.84

Driftwood

159,450

162,450

105.93

152,617

155,000

100.35

-6,833

-7,450

-5.58

Duff Villag

141,143

140,650

105.31

139,156

139,950

103.81

-1,987

-750

-1.50

Lk Fennwd

197,300

187,900

111.76

196,667

218,000

115.59

-633

+30,100

+3.83

Spring Lak

183,678

184,900

103.81

187,738

185,250

97.84

+4,060

+350

-5.97

Three Laks

238,343

250,000

111.64

247,985

231,000

116.63

+9,642

-19,000

+4.99

The Mdws

145,617

147,450

104.94

141,570

139,900

105.43

-4,070

-7,550

+0.49

Total Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

-$1,181

-$193

-$1.23

 

Despite Negative Local Media Coverage, Denham Springs & Walker Louisiana Markets Holding Steady

About Bill Cobb, Appraiser

The Baton Rouge Residential Appraisal Blog is an information source provided by local Home Appraiser, Bill Cobb, and Accurate Valuations Group. Bill has 24 years experience as a Baton Rouge Residential Home Appraiser and updates his local network of sites weekly with reports, videos and audio reviews of local housing market conditions! 225-293-1500